Climate crisis

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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby GaySpacePirateKing » 22 June 2019, 16:59

SteveIsNotMe wrote:If such catastrophe were to happen within the next 100 years


Global average temperatures are on course to rise 3-4 degrees C by 2100, but it doesn't mean that by 2100 we will immediately jump to a Pliocene like world and the catastrophes I've described earlier. They will take quite a long time to play out (I don't know how long), but they eventually will and as they do play out they will likely lead to even greater warming.

But in the meantime the climate change we experience now and up to 2100 will be difficult enough to deal with, eventually causing millions of people to flee from areas that are too hot to live in and of drought and food insecurity. Its going to and probably already is causing global political, social and economic turmoil that is and will be very difficult for governments to deal with, and it looks like the way they have chosen to 'deal' with it is with brutality in the form of walls, concentration camps and deportations. The other issue here (the main issue really) is that capitalism can't go on forever and is already undermining the ecology it and we rely on thus causing all these issues.

So as for the collapse of human civilisation. I think civilisation as we know it will collapse into a brutal fascist world (and then we will be on our way to eventual extinction) or we overthrow all the power structures and rebuild society on a more democratic, socialist and local scale.
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby Karbon » 25 July 2019, 18:23

A much more interesting question is what can the average person do to slow down climate change. Is trying to limit your own carbon footprint effective? Should I write to my representative to urge them to do something abount climate change? and what? I live in a small eastern-european country (you've never heard of it, i lived in it before it was cool) and there are no political parties that have climate change on the agenda. Even if somehow we would be able to convince politicianss to do something, Romania isn't really a heavy polluter compared to China, US and western Europe
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby Sullivan » 26 July 2019, 18:50

Karbon wrote:A much more interesting question is what can the average person do to slow down climate change. Is trying to limit your own carbon footprint effective? Should I write to my representative to urge them to do something abount climate change? and what? I live in a small eastern-european country (you've never heard of it, i lived in it before it was cool) and there are no political parties that have climate change on the agenda. Even if somehow we would be able to convince politicianss to do something, Romania isn't really a heavy polluter compared to China, US and western Europe


That question, to me, is just evidence of how completely fucked we are. Taking a neoliberal tack and asking what the individual, as consumer and as citizen of a representative government, can do to change things is perilously inadequate.

Systemic issues have bred the present crisis, and nothing short of massive changes to how we in wealthy nations order our economic, political, and social systems will allow us to reverse course.

As bad as things currently are, I think they'll need to get worse (and worse especially for privileged people still insulated from the present fallout of the climate crisis) before any kind of sufficient systemic changes arise to challenge the status quo. The question becomes whether by then, regardless of whatever changes may occur, it will be too late.
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby poolerboy0077 » 26 July 2019, 21:52

Sullivan wrote:
Karbon wrote:A much more interesting question is what can the average person do to slow down climate change. Is trying to limit your own carbon footprint effective? Should I write to my representative to urge them to do something abount climate change? and what? I live in a small eastern-european country (you've never heard of it, i lived in it before it was cool) and there are no political parties that have climate change on the agenda. Even if somehow we would be able to convince politicianss to do something, Romania isn't really a heavy polluter compared to China, US and western Europe


That question, to me, is just evidence of how completely fucked we are. Taking a neoliberal tack and asking what the individual, as consumer and as citizen of a representative government, can do to change things is perilously inadequate.

Systemic issues have bred the present crisis, and nothing short of massive changes to how we in wealthy nations order our economic, political, and social systems will allow us to reverse course.

As bad as things currently are, I think they'll need to get worse (and worse especially for privileged people still insulated from the present fallout of the climate crisis) before any kind of sufficient systemic changes arise to challenge the status quo. The question becomes whether by then, regardless of whatever changes may occur, it will be too late.

A friend of mine’s gf once said in regards to being more conscientious about our polluting footprints said, “Fuck the environment.” People like this still exist in the world believe it or not.
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby GaySpacePirateKing » 28 July 2019, 10:21

Karbon wrote:Even if somehow we would be able to convince politicians to do something...


Unless you have a lot of money and not just money really but capital as in assets such as you owning several big businesses and employing lots of labour then even the best of politicians do not care about you.

They can not care about you, because they are in service to capital, because it is capital that funds their election campaigns, it is capital that owns the media and its capital that can prevent reform by pulling capital out of a country whose government looks too radical.

Even left wing politicians and parties still have to answer to this for their own survival, and even the best of politicians with the most progressive of views can become corrupted, because as a politician they mix with a different class of people from you and me, earn massive paychecks and are entitled to all sorts of benefits.

Simply put you can not trust that a politician or a political party will put its career on the line to implement meaningful systemic change to address climate change, because nothing short of the abolition of capitalism would do that, and the system has many levers of power that will prevent something like that from ever occurring through parliaments.
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby Iamjava » 28 July 2019, 18:58

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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby GaySpacePirateKing » 28 July 2019, 23:22

Iamjava wrote:Politicians also invest in green. The wonderful part of Congress: they can insider trade.


Yet despite all the politicians investing in renewable energy (their not) and despite the decades of negotiations and climate conferences (which amounted to nothing) greenhouse gas concentrations continue to go up.

http://isj.org.uk/dirty-energy-capitalism/
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby PopTart » 29 July 2019, 06:28

poolerboy0077 wrote:
Sullivan wrote:
Karbon wrote:A much more interesting question is what can the average person do to slow down climate change. Is trying to limit your own carbon footprint effective? Should I write to my representative to urge them to do something abount climate change? and what? I live in a small eastern-european country (you've never heard of it, i lived in it before it was cool) and there are no political parties that have climate change on the agenda. Even if somehow we would be able to convince politicianss to do something, Romania isn't really a heavy polluter compared to China, US and western Europe


That question, to me, is just evidence of how completely fucked we are. Taking a neoliberal tack and asking what the individual, as consumer and as citizen of a representative government, can do to change things is perilously inadequate.

Systemic issues have bred the present crisis, and nothing short of massive changes to how we in wealthy nations order our economic, political, and social systems will allow us to reverse course.

As bad as things currently are, I think they'll need to get worse (and worse especially for privileged people still insulated from the present fallout of the climate crisis) before any kind of sufficient systemic changes arise to challenge the status quo. The question becomes whether by then, regardless of whatever changes may occur, it will be too late.

A friend of mine’s gf once said in regards to being more conscientious about our polluting footprints said, “Fuck the environment.” People like this still exist in the world believe it or not.

Such a blaisey attitude could be indicative of someone, who simply feels overwhelmed by the issue, although I admit, your friend, with her opinion, sounds more generally dismissive of the issue being and issue to begin with.

It wasn't long ago that I was working in catering and a woman there was one of the first, ardent climate change deniers I've ever met. I honestly thought they didn't exist here.

She had such a well organised and thought out series of arguements, for why climate change was a hoax. We discussed the subject several times and her explanations ranged from special interest groups wanting to appropriate public funding for themselves to more rationalised explanations. The fact she was so certain, when I shared my own views and quoted sources for studies regarding the climate cycle and human impact upon it, she smiled knowingly and countered with something of her own... I got the distinct impression she desperately wanted to be right, she was the worrying type in most other things. This was something she couldn't and wouldn't let herself believe was a genuine concern.

I think that was the first time I really understood the challenge that humanity faces when it comes to climate change. Not with the change itself, but with our societies, be it individuals or collections of individuals (corps, countries etc) not wanting to see the wood for the trees, while I do think the vast majority of people know and understand climate change to be true. There are just a few too many who doubt or willfuly choose not to believe, either for their own blind obsession with their goals, like Jzone mentioned or because they are afraid of having to face upto it.

I honestly don't know if it will ever be confronted in time in a meaningful way. I hope so, because while I hope not ot be around to witness the worst shifts likely to come, I also hate the idea of all the progress our species has made, going backwards.

Worse yet, the Earth becoming uninhabitable. :runaway:
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby NvM » 14 August 2019, 15:44

i do not have a degree in climatology but not willing to bet the ranch temperatures are slowly creeping up.
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby James M » 23 April 2020, 13:26

It's certainly been thought-provoking to read through this thread. I'm relieved to see that pretty much everyone who replied acknowledges and shares a concern for climate change, I've never been able to fathom what goes on in the minds of climate change deniers.

I actually was thinking yesterday, that since Covid-19 has been dominating the news lately, I haven't seen or heard much about climate change in the media lately - while it's clear to see why, it's still shocking considering last year the whole climate change debate was really at the forefront of the media, with the global climate change rally, the climate debate in the election campaign and the social impact of Greta Thunberg. I just hope that when the time comes that media focus starts to shift away from the virus, the topic of climate change, and more importantly the call to action, isn't left in 2019.

It is rather disconcerting that so many western leaders seem to be apathetic to what is such a major issue, but I suppose there's some solace in the knowledge that there's still people fighting the cause, like the denial of the expansion of Heathrow airport to include a third runway.

I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts on activism groups and movements such as XR, as I know they can be pretty polarising. For example, at my university, you'll quite often see posters for XR and stickers around campus, but I also know there's plenty of students who think that their more disruptive and abrasive approach is doing more harm than good.
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby GaySpacePirateKing » 23 April 2020, 17:49

James M wrote:It's certainly been thought-provoking to read through this thread. I'm relieved to see that pretty much everyone who replied acknowledges and shares a concern for climate change, I've never been able to fathom what goes on in the minds of climate change deniers.

I actually had was thinking yesterday, that since Covid-19 has been dominating the news lately, I haven't seen or heard much about climate change in the media lately - while it's clear to see why, it's still shocking considering last year the whole climate change debate was really at the forefront of the media, with the global climate change rally, the climate debate in the election campaign and the social impact of Greta Thunberg. I just hope that when the time comes that media focus starts to shift away from the virus, the topic of climate change, and more importantly the call to action, isn't left in 2019.

It is rather disconcerting that so many western leaders seem to be apathetic to what is such a major issue, but I suppose there's some solace in the knowledge that there's still people fighting the cause, like the denial of the expansion of Heathrow airport to include a third runway.

I'd be interested to hear people's thoughts on activism groups and movements such as XR, as I know they can be pretty polarising. For example, at my university, you'll quite often see posters for XR and stickers around campus, but I also know there's plenty of students who think that their more disruptive and abrasive approach is doing more harm than good.


I don't see the pandemic and climate change as being two separate issues because there are relationships between them and both are caused by the overarching issue that we are destroying our environment, which is being driven by capitalism whilst the pandemic itself risks throwing capitalism into an economic depression and is intensifying all of the social problems we are already facing under capitalism.

All of these issues are really just part of one big mega issue, but to try and explain some of these relationships though:

So with climate change it may not actually cause a virus, disease or pandemic, but because climate change affects the distribution of species, as well as causing more floods heatwaves and storms (which themselves can help spread disease in the aftermath of a disaster) then it may intensify the conditions which cause disease to spread or emerge. There are some studies suggesting that the range of bats may be expanding in relation to climate change for example.

As for destroying the environment. Well we are expanding into areas rich in biodiversity and coming into contact with species we wouldn't normally. We are minning, logging and doing agriculture in mass scale in these environments and as we do so we are destroying the biodiversity of these environments and turning them into fragile ecosystems. This creates conditions not just for disease to spread but for diseases to jump between species.

Also the way that we do agriculture is a breeding ground for disease. We are breeding livestock to be genetically similar (which means there is less chance for immunity to develop), and having large numbers of them in close proximity to each other. Then we are killing those animals as soon as possible to create food. This trains a virus to be highly contagious. It goes further though as we are raising livestock in the same fragile environments mentioned earlier where they are in proximity to wild animals and in some places we are also trading and butchering wild animals and livestock alongside each other.
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby James M » 23 April 2020, 21:09

GaySpacePirateKing wrote:I don't see the pandemic and climate change as being two separate issues because there are relationships between them and both are caused by the overarching issue that we are destroying our environment, which is being driven by capitalism whilst the pandemic itself risks throwing capitalism into an economic depression and is intensifying all of the social problems we are already facing under capitalism.

All of these issues are really just part of one big mega issue, but to try and explain some of these relationships though:

So with climate change it may not actually cause a virus, disease or pandemic, but because climate change affects the distribution of species, as well as causing more floods heatwaves and storms (which themselves can help spread disease in the aftermath of a disaster) then it may intensify the conditions which cause disease to spread or emerge. There are some studies suggesting that the range of bats may be expanding in relation to climate change for example.

As for destroying the environment. Well we are expanding into areas rich in biodiversity and coming into contact with species we wouldn't normally. We are mining, logging and doing agriculture in mass scale in these environments and as we do so we are destroying the biodiversity of these environments and turning them into fragile ecosystems. This creates conditions not just for disease to spread but for diseases to jump between species.

Also the way that we do agriculture is a breeding ground for disease. We are breeding livestock to be genetically similar (which means there is less chance for immunity to develop), and having large numbers of them in close proximity to each other. Then we are killing those animals as soon as possible to create food. This trains a virus to be highly contagious. It goes further though as we are raising livestock in the same fragile environments mentioned earlier where they are in proximity to wild animals and in some places we are also trading and butchering wild animals and livestock alongside each other.

That's a very interesting take, I can totally see your way of thinking, and I agree. I think my main concern is that it's easy for deniers and those in positions of power to, whether it be for ignorance or personal gain, detract from the pressing issue. I think the fact that wildlife has so visibly flourished while society is cooped up inside is indisputably a sign that humanity is the biggest threat to the planet - a sentiment which I've also seen doing the rounds on social media and is a more digestible way of looking at the issue for people who have no interest in scientific studies.
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby Brenden » 23 April 2020, 23:14

The range of bats may be expanding, but if it weren't for some Chinese being disgusting bat-eating freaks who keep them live in tiny cages and then slaughter them on purchase, it wouldn't be much of a problem.

Few pandemics have originated from the Indian subcontinent, despite greater population density and more unsanitary living conditions — except with regard to food, in which case all major religions have strict dietary restrictions and purity guidelines regarding which animals may be eaten and how they must be treated and slaughtered. In general, if they eat meat at all, they eat long-domesticated animals.

It's always* out of China. COVID-19, SARS, Bird Flu, Hong Kong Flu (1960s), Asian Flu (1950s),… the freaking Black Death!

*I don't mean literally always, but repeatedly.
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby John27 » 24 April 2020, 06:51

Brenden wrote:It's always* out of China. COVID-19, SARS, Bird Flu, Hong Kong Flu (1960s), Asian Flu (1950s),… the freaking Black Death!


Well, the next problem disease might get started in North America, courtesy of our factory farms that produce meat/eggs/dairy. Indeed, I've seen commentary recently pointing out that conditions are unhealthy at the best of times, and they could set the stage to be ground zero for some new bug. Even if this doesn't happen, these farms are causing environmental harm.

For some reason, I remembered this video done by Dr. Garth Davis, who promotes plant based diets. It talks about some of the environmental impacts (among other things) of animal agriculture as it currently exists. It is more than a bit sobering.

https://youtu.be/8vRlfaU2QVc
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby Brenden » 24 April 2020, 10:01

John27 wrote:Well, the next problem disease might get started in North America, courtesy of our factory farms that produce meat/eggs/dairy. Indeed, I've seen commentary recently pointing out that conditions are unhealthy at the best of times, and they could set the stage to be ground zero for some new bug. Even if this doesn't happen, these farms are causing environmental harm.

For some reason, I remembered this video done by Dr. Garth Davis, who promotes plant based diets. It talks about some of the environmental impacts (among other things) of animal agriculture as it currently exists. It is more than a bit sobering.

There is a vast difference between factory farming long-domesticated animals and what happens with wild animals in China and elsewhere when it comes to infectious disease. Factory farming's risks are more in producing contaminated meat that will make the consumer sick but not necessarily begin to transmit human-to-human, not producing highly-virulent novel strains of infectious disease.
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby Marmaduke » 24 April 2020, 13:03

Brenden wrote:
John27 wrote:Well, the next problem disease might get started in North America, courtesy of our factory farms that produce meat/eggs/dairy. Indeed, I've seen commentary recently pointing out that conditions are unhealthy at the best of times, and they could set the stage to be ground zero for some new bug. Even if this doesn't happen, these farms are causing environmental harm.

For some reason, I remembered this video done by Dr. Garth Davis, who promotes plant based diets. It talks about some of the environmental impacts (among other things) of animal agriculture as it currently exists. It is more than a bit sobering.

There is a vast difference between factory farming long-domesticated animals and what happens with wild animals in China and elsewhere when it comes to infectious disease. Factory farming's risks are more in producing contaminated meat that will make the consumer sick but not necessarily begin to transmit human-to-human, not producing highly-virulent novel strains of infectious disease.

The 2009 swine flu pandemic started in American pig farms, it infected around a billion people and killed an estimated 284,000.
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby Brenden » 24 April 2020, 13:19

Marmaduke wrote:
Brenden wrote:
John27 wrote:Well, the next problem disease might get started in North America, courtesy of our factory farms that produce meat/eggs/dairy. Indeed, I've seen commentary recently pointing out that conditions are unhealthy at the best of times, and they could set the stage to be ground zero for some new bug. Even if this doesn't happen, these farms are causing environmental harm.

For some reason, I remembered this video done by Dr. Garth Davis, who promotes plant based diets. It talks about some of the environmental impacts (among other things) of animal agriculture as it currently exists. It is more than a bit sobering.

There is a vast difference between factory farming long-domesticated animals and what happens with wild animals in China and elsewhere when it comes to infectious disease. Factory farming's risks are more in producing contaminated meat that will make the consumer sick but not necessarily begin to transmit human-to-human, not producing highly-virulent novel strains of infectious disease.

The 2009 swine flu pandemic started in American pig farms, it infected around a billion people and killed an estimated 284,000.

I said the risks are more in contaminated products, I didn’t exclude the possibility of infectious disease arising.

But,
In 2009, U.S. agricultural officials speculated, although emphasizing that there was no way to prove their hypothesis, that "contrary to the popular assumption that the new swine flu pandemic arose on factory farms in Mexico," the virus "most likely emerged in pigs in Asia, but then traveled to North America in a human."[34] However, a subsequent report[35] by researchers at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in 2016 found that the 2009 H1N1 virus likely originated from pigs in a very small region of central Mexico.[36]

Initially called an "outbreak", widespread H1N1 infection was first recognized in the state of Veracruz, Mexico, with evidence that the virus had been present for months before it was officially called an "epidemic".[34]

Furthermore,
Some studies estimated that 11 to 21 percent of the global population at the time—or around 700 million to 1.4 billion people (of a total 6.8 billion)—contracted the illness. This was more than the number of people infected by the Spanish flu pandemic,[12][13] but only resulted in about 284,000 (range from 150,000 to 575,000) fatalities for the 2009 pandemic.[14] A follow-up study done in September 2010 showed that the risk of serious illness resulting from the 2009 H1N1 flu was no higher than that of the yearly seasonal flu.[15] For comparison, the WHO estimates that 250,000 to 500,000 people die of seasonal flu annually.[9]
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby Marmaduke » 24 April 2020, 13:34

Thank you for providing a source which, in itself, identifies that it is unprovable speculation. I didn’t realise we were holding ourselves to such a low standard of proof these days. Please, allow me to retort;

In 2020, agricultural scientists from the Marm. A. Duke institute of agricultural research speculated, whilst stating that there was no way to prove their hypothesis, that the 2009 swine flu pandemic originated in the garden of one Mr. Brenden Bourne of Michigan


I was also aware of the estimates, and the spread of values, I didn’t think it was unfair to provide a median figure for ease of reference within an off-handed counter to your off-handed implication that only Chinese farms originate diseases.
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby Brenden » 24 April 2020, 13:47

I didn't imply that "only" Chinese farms originate disease. In fact, I wasn't even talking about Chinese farms. I was talking about fucking disgusting wet markets where wild animals are kept in close proximity to thousands of human shoppers and slaughtered on the spot.

Also, nice job just picking out one sentence from the quoted bits and skipping over "However, a subsequent report[35] by researchers at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine in 2016 found that the 2009 H1N1 virus likely originated from pigs in a very small region of central Mexico.[36]"
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Re: Climate crisis

Unread postby Marmaduke » 24 April 2020, 13:53

I didn't skip over it. I just chose to disregard, as many might, a single report that conflicted with the academic consensus and whose conclusion was only as certain as to say "likely". What's likely? 51% more likely than not? It's a conclusion, but it's not conclusive.
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