Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

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Re: Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

Unread postby oldfriend » 24 December 2021, 05:15

Innovation requires a certain level of intellectual freedom and willingness to embrace new potentially disruptive ideas, far more than the CCP has demonstrated. I'm not an expert on anything geopolitical, but I would be willing to wager that China will either see significant liberalisation and flourish technologically (if the tech can lead the existing culture) or remain authoritarian and decline (if the existing culture leads the tech).

What actually happens is anyone's guess.
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Re: Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

Unread postby katzgar » 24 December 2021, 08:04

yes
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Re: Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

Unread postby PopTart » 24 December 2021, 17:06

oldfriend wrote:Innovation requires a certain level of intellectual freedom and willingness to embrace new potentially disruptive ideas, far more than the CCP has demonstrated. I'm not an expert on anything geopolitical, but I would be willing to wager that China will either see significant liberalisation and flourish technologically (if the tech can lead the existing culture) or remain authoritarian and decline (if the existing culture leads the tech).

What actually happens is anyone's guess.

This. My greatest concern is that somehow, China will start to innovate through some form of mixed methodology of incentivisation for certain professions, particular amodst engineering and the sciences.

Right now, China hasn't really innovated with anything much. It's taken (often via espionage, but also by brute forcing, in terms of sheer volune of money and people thrown at things) a short while to catch up with the west. I'd say they are nearing parity at this point.

IF China does start to innovate and it isn't destroyed by it's growing debt problems (evergrande but also it's highspeed rail network which is on the hook for insance amounts of money and struggling to pay back interest alone, on investment loans) the we can pretty much kiss democracy goodbye I fear.

The more interesting question isn't, Will China overtake the US as a superpower. But what would it do with the title. The US is certainly in decline, it still sits as the sole superpower for now, and will be one for some time to come, short of something bad happening. But it will have to share that role with others, likely China, possibly Europe and depending on what happens, maybe even the East African Federation, if it gets it's act together. India and something in the Anglosphere might also crop up.

But the US time at the top alone is coming to a close.
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Re: Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

Unread postby poolerboy0077 » 24 December 2021, 17:13

PopTart wrote:But the US time at the top alone is coming to a close.

You’re counting down the days and relishing this, aren’t you?
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Re: Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

Unread postby PopTart » 24 December 2021, 17:16

poolerboy0077 wrote:
PopTart wrote:But the US time at the top alone is coming to a close.

You’re counting down the days and relishing this, aren’t you?

:shifty: No comment

:popcorn:
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Re: Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

Unread postby pozzie » 27 December 2021, 21:20

I certainly wouldn't mind resigning from the role as super-power, especially if one of the 'duties' is to police places like Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan. I'm sort of watching Chile with a flashback interest -- if they do take a strong tack to the left, will we respond differently than the last time? (And one point I'm not really clear on: did Pinochet et al initiate the coup or did a certain spy agency by saying, "Hey, Pinochet, if you decide you need help, we're here for you.")
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Re: Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

Unread postby PopTart » 27 December 2021, 21:52

Jesting aside, I don't actually want to see the US lose status or influence on the world stage as I think there has been just as much good as bad that has come of it. The good matters. I'm not sure policing the world ever goes down well, either at home or abroad, but I do sometimes wonder if someone has to do it. Thankless task or no. I do think that the world would do better to have several superpowers, working in tandem, preferably in concert rather than at cross purposes.

It would be a shame to see the US shrug off it's current leadership status, because it now has to share the position or because it no longer feels it's beneficial to take the role and someone else can fill that void. Especially if the one looking to fill the void is the CCP.
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Re: Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

Unread postby pozzie » 28 December 2021, 21:39

Leadership? In whose eyes? I don't believe there is any moral leadership in the continued blockade of Cuba for example. I also had a very telling experience in South Africa. We got some the American newsmagazines there and it was during Harold Washington's run to be Chicago's first Black mayor. Time or Newsweek had a picture of a graffitied wall - no nigger mayor! My South African friends asked, "Who are Americans to lecture us about race relations?" That has now morphed into Chinese propogandists asking "Who are Americans to lecture us on human rights?" while pointing to statistics on police interactions with African Americans.

And what makes a country a superpower? How much of that is linked to wealth and military might? How are those related to ethics and morality?

No, the whole concept of "superpower" is a holdover from the Cold War. Have to wonder if the word wasn't coined because the prior term "colonial power" no longer worked terribly well, but in a way, it's just the same thing. A superpower was a neo-colonial power and I just don't see how that made the world any better.

If any country has a good idea to fix a problem, they can be a leader and others will follow. If a country has a problem and wants external help to deal with internal security, let them first ask their allies and if that doesn't deal with the the issue, then go to the global community. I'd really rather see a retooled UN handle police actions instead of any single country, basically unilaterally, deciding to 'fix' another state. (But I do admit that as currently made up, the UN has problems, but that's a different discussion.)

I was way more supportive of the first Iraqi invasion than I was of the second. I trust you can see why in the prior paragraph.
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Re: Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

Unread postby PopTart » 28 December 2021, 22:53

You feel the US has done nothing good then? Okay. I'm not going to sit here and defend your own countries track record. If you can't be asked, despite being a prime beneficiary of it, I don't see why the job should fall to me :lol:

America is shit! Better? :monocle:

What makes a country a superpower? Oh Pozzie, come on. The aggregation of wealth, power and influence. It can come from all manner of things. In an idealised, fantasy world, where resources were evenly distributed over the Earths surface and every people got their fair share, sure, no one nation or collection of nations, would get to "corner the market" and rise to a dominant position over anyone else. Buuuut we don't live on the other side a magical wardrobe. We are not ruled by the Care bears.

One way or another, someone finds their way to the head of the table. No matter how much you bristle at hiercarchies ;) If we are lucky we get a nice person at the head of the table, or we get someone like Idi Armin.

That being the case, I rather the imperfect, liberty minded, sometimes, maybe often times, corrupted democracy of America, than the balls out, totalitarian, fuck your civil rights, get inside the factory and do your fucking part, China or the: Sure your vote matters, my crime friends and oligarch chums will show you to the voting booth and let you know who to vote for, by the way, how do you feel about walking? Because your remaining ambulatory is dependant on your vote :noes: :thumbsup: I mean, right now, Russia has 100,000 troops sat on the Ukrainian Border and you know what? It's not the threat of sanctions that stops a revanchist like Putin from marching into a sovereign state like Ukraine. Maybe he is worried what history will say about him? :rofl:

So America has used a liberal amount of Gunboat diplomacy. Sometimes the world aint nice. Did you know, I'm sure that you do, but the west had to wage a decades long war to get the rest of the world to abolish slavery. Because the rest of the world was totally down with that shit. It didn't want to give that shit up. Arab slavers would dash out the brains of slaves babies to keep them from crying. Look at life in Saudi Arabia, Dubai, the oppressive societies of central Asia, the cherry on top China. Things haven't changed that much. Peel back the nice veneer of modernity and underneath is the seething, putrid mass of human degeneracy. It's really not that far away. In the grand scheme of things, America hasn't been that bad.

So America hasn't been run by the make a wish foundation. Sometimes it has been self serving. Sometimes, it has fucked other people over. Like, alot. But it could have been so very much worse.

And the problem with waiting for a "great and worthy leader to rise" is that, in the mean time, all the not so great and worthy leaders get together and decide who is going to divide everything up and guess what? They aren't much concerned with making sure you get your fair share. Sometimes there needs to be a sherrif in town. To protect the world from the bullies. Sometimes the Sherrif does abit of bullying too. Takes some back handers, turns a blind eye. But we could just not have a sherrif and then we can see what happens. It wont be pretty. But sure, maybe a miracle will happen and in an unlikely turn of events and against all historical evidence to the contrary, everyone will all hold hands and hug things out. We'll ride into the sunset on shiny unicorns, bellies full on love and sunshine! Or atleast that is what it will look like in the nuclear firestorm as everyone does what everyone has always done. I'll be in a bunker someplace while you guys run this particular experiment.

Did the sarcasm come across? :squint:
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Re: Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

Unread postby pozzie » 28 December 2021, 23:11

PopTart wrote:Did the sarcasm come across? :squint:


Not exactly. For a moment I thought Marmie had hacked your account but the wording just didn't work.

And please don't lump me in the America is Evil crowd. I think there are positives as well but there's an attitude ... for example, you know the only reason you didn't lose the world wars was because the US won them. Now that's not to say that US participation (especially in the Pacific) wasn't significant, but a large group of Americans labor under those kind of assumptions. We won the Cold War too.

I prefer to see it as the Allied Powers, working in concert, won. (And I have a difficult time not viewing WWI as the first act of at least a two act war. We're once again staring Act III in the face. :( )
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Re: Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

Unread postby PopTart » 28 December 2021, 23:34

pozzie wrote:
PopTart wrote:Did the sarcasm come across? :squint:


Not exactly. For a moment I thought Marmie had hacked your account but the wording just didn't work.
He does have a better way with words. But you see my point? Because Marmaduke is what British people are really like. Some of us try to be nice. It goes against the grain. But we manage. It could be us in charge still and I'm pretty sure few people would like that. I mean, everything would ofcourse, be much better, for some of us atleast.

pozzie wrote:And please don't lump me in the America is Evil crowd.
kinds hard, when you're sideling along beside them and doing your best to mimic their calls. You do come across as very down on America. Maybe there is more nuance to it, but the vibe is definately, self loathing. Eeww.

pozzie wrote:I prefer to see it as the Allied Powers, working in concert, won. (And I have a difficult time not viewing WWI as the first act of at least a two act war. We're once again staring Act III in the face. :( )
As it has been for the last three hundred years. And yeah, a third seems highly plausible. The writing is on the wall and the west is trying hard to avoid it, or postpone it. I dunno. I just hope I'm too old to get drafted when it happens. :runaway: no amount of soldier dick is worth that meat grinder.
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Re: Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

Unread postby pozzie » 29 December 2021, 01:44

Well, what a discussion of China's super-power prowess needs is more talk about Russia!

IDK, I'm one of Putin's greatest anti-fans, but honestly, I've been trying to see this thing from his POV. When it comes to geopolitics, he's KGB through and through. I just can't decide if this is all made-up pretense to justify another invasion or if they're really that paranoid that NATO's out to get them.

Or maybe it's all a clever ruse to get us all occupied on the western front so the CCP can invade a certain wayward island.

But clearly the Ukraine problem is really just the same problem we've been dealing with since the fall of the Nazis: what's Russia's sphere of influence going to be? For some reason they just don't seem to understand that many states, when held too closely, are only too happy to claw their way to the other side. I'm sure Putin rues the day he allowed Yanukovych to be removed from office (notice he's not making the same mistake with Lukashenko).

So yeah, there's always a likely bad actor on the playground called the World Stage. Question is, is it better to rely on another bully to take out the bully we don't like OR we can skip the bully and all the kids on the playground can work together to restore order and, at least, contain the bully inside the jungle gym?

Last, I think Putie would be very offended we're talking about there only being two superpowers: I don't believe he would admit Russia's loss of that title.
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Re: Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

Unread postby PopTart » 29 December 2021, 02:40

Russia. What a waste.

I don't buy the Nato provocation as claimed by Putin. It's largely pretext. But I do think Putin acts out of few options.

I don't doubt that Putin and his military advisors feel exposed since the collapse of the soviet Union. In large part due to geography.

It has the largest borders of any country.

Take the border between the Baltic and the Black Sea. Over 57000km of flat, featureless terrain. Hard to defend even with plenty of men, planes and modern rader and satellite observation.

But that's not all. In the south, they have an equally exposed border with the former soviet states there. Uzbekistan and the like. It too is flat and featureless for the most part. Not well lent to defense. Plus those states once remained in the Russia sphere. They are now coming under the influence of China, thanks to belt and road.

They also have the far distant Eastern border with China which is geographically more secure. The Amur basin is edged with a nice defensible mountain range. But there demographics are against them as more and more Hans have been migrating into Russias territory there and they threaten to dwarf the Russian population. Putin has tried incentivising west to East settlement to counteract this trend but with little success. China is employing their weapons of mass reproduction :P The truth is that if China wanted to reclaim the Amur basin and the Eastern siberian corridor, there isn't much Russia could do, short of nuclear deterent to stop them.

Yet the least likely border to face invasion in Russia, is the Western one.

Europe has gone out of it's way to make peace and work collaboratively with Russia. The US isn't about to attack Russia without a damn good reason (it's now focused on the real competition, China) Nato continues to be a defensive alliance only, sure it has moved eastward, but largely to encircle it's new members who have been threatened by Russia, not to encircle Russia.

Russia behaves with belligerence, which evokes a defensive stance in their neighbours which Putin then points too and calls it belligerence. Talk about transference.

Russia has no cause to fear a western invasion. Even if Turkey somehow managed to field an army with their dead economy, they wouldn't put up much fight against Russias superior military force. Ukraine posses no threat and wouldn't have drifted so heavily towards the west, if Russia wasn't constantly interfering politically. And it did so because the sentiment in Moscow is that Ukraine, like all former soviet states are satellite states of greater Russia, who will return to fold.

Despite all of this. Putin is ultimately a revanchist and so too are many Russians who harken after the glory days of Soviet greatness. Especially those that were never alive to remember the horrors.

They know they have been relegated to regional power status. Worse yet, they have been eclipsed by a junior ally, China, who they don't really trust, despite what both Beijing and Moscow say.

Russia is stuck between a rock and hard place. If Putin had any sense, he'd have recognised that Russia is far safer in bed with the west than with China, but instead has thrown in with the "devil" because he still exists in a soviet mindset, in which America is the enemy and the west is out to get Russia. Maybe it's because the majority of Russias population and Industry resides in the west. Maybe it's because the only place to territoriality expand without upsetting China, is the west.

But Putin would like to expand.

Problem is...Will he?

Truth is, I don't think Russia can afford war. Especially with the west. Russias economy is dependant on sale of gas to Europe. It's kept afloat by it. If Russia invades Ukraine, I don't think Nato or the west will respond militarily (which would be wise, doing so would ensure China joins the conflict, WW3 begins)

Russia would achieve victory but it would be bloody but I also suspect rhey would have years of guerrilla fighting to deal with. It's remarkably difficult to subjugate people's today. Everyone has access to such sophisticated weaponry and means of communication and logistics.

It also risks destabilising their own frontier regards Georgia and other black sea regions that would love to break away.

Sanctions etc etc.

There is some weight to the argument, that this whole affair is a means to extract political concessions from a weak and fragile west and to assert Russias influence and garner attention on the world stage. Like it or not, Russia is a mere regional power now, a well armed, nuclear power but regional. All this brinkmanship makes them seem larger and more threatening than they are.

But I still believe that if he thought he could do it, if he thought he could roll tanks into Kyiv, he totally would. Poland too. And any other place where once a Russian flag once flew.
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Re: Do you think China will overtake the US as a superpower?

Unread postby pozzie » 29 December 2021, 03:36

Little to disagree with there, but I have to ask, when was the last time a foreign power was able to install their own friendly government in the Kremlin? Depending on one's take, one might point to Catherine the Great's coup. Otherwise I can't think of anything but will admit I might be forgetting some invasion. Have no trouble remembering the failed invasions though.

Maybe the Russians have a complex because of the aid Western governments gave to the Whites, and even though we know how that came out, it could have left a mark on the consciousness similar to the way that the Divine Wind (aka typhoon) which scuttled the Mongol invasion of Japan convinced subsequent generations that the home islands were impregnable. I don't know - just thinking in text.

I also suspect that hardliners in the Kremlin don't believe the West will actually do anything real. Europe still needs the gas and oil it buys from the Russians and we've seen how the Russians have used pipeline diplomacy over the last couple of decades. But more telling is the fact that, contrary to what most everyone else says, Crimea was taken without much effort. That came as no surprise - I was only surprised the Russians let it go during the Great Divorce. I can see that lesson could have been learned inside the Kremlin.

And what better way to divert attention from internal difficulties than that spin constant stories that the West is out to get them?

Thus why I'm saying we need a different approach. I'm not sure exactly what that is but do take heart that at least we're going to engage in some dialog on the 10th. There have been reports of troops being pulled back from the Ukrainian border - probably not more than 10% - but some might try to read that as a goodwill gesture (or trick, I grant that).

Somehow the big bear needs to be lulled back to sleep - or at least given enough vodka to relax a bit.
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